Trump's Trade Threats Put Spain's Energy Security at Risk
Spain's energy security is under threat due to Donald Trump's trade threats against the country. The US has supplied an average of 250,000 b/d of crude oil to Spain in 2025, and while Spain's crude slate is diversified, losing this supply would be painful. In fact, when the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted earlier this year, Spain's crude imports rose by 15.8% year-on-year in April.
Repsol, the largest Spanish refiner, operates five refineries with a total distillation capacity of 896,000 b/d. It is the principal importer of US crude into Spain, with WTI Midland dominating due to its light and sweet quality. A disruption would require finding alternative barrels that match individual refinery configurations.
Spain could replace those barrels at a higher cost, but the easiest substitution would be West African or Brazilian grades. However, natural gas is a more strategic vulnerability for Spain, as US LNG supplied about 30% of Spain's total gas imports in 2025 and still accounted for 29% in the first half of 2026.
US LNG combines long-term offtake with flexible portfolio and spot cargoes that move according to relative prices. This flexibility helped Spain during the crisis months, but it also means cargoes can be redirected toward Asia whenever JKM offers a stronger netback. The EU's ban on Russian LNG takes effect on January 1, 2027, which will further reduce Spain's gas options.