Trump's Views on Canadian Oil Exports Contradict His Words
President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that Canada is ripping off the US for about $60 billion every year, citing a merchandise trade deficit. However, this reasoning is flawed according to new data from Statistics Canada.
The largest contributor to the bilateral trade deficit was Canadian crude oil exports of roughly $94 billion in 2025. In other words, absent these oil exports, the United States would be running a trade surplus of $34 billion.
Canada shipped an average of 3.6 million barrels of crude oil per day to the US in 2026, while US refineries consumed about 16 million barrels per day. The US produces only 13.8 million barrels per day and exports around 1.4 million barrels per day.
This pattern reflects the geography of production and consumption, as well as the different types of crude oil. Canadian heavy/sour crude oil is essential for US refineries, particularly in the Midwest and Gulf Coast, which consume about six million barrels of this type of crude oil per day.