TTF Natural Gas Prices Halted by Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Disruptions

Rabobank analyst Florence Schmit highlights that tight European fundamentals and supply disruptions in the Gulf region are supporting TTF Natural Gas prices.

The bank notes that low gas inventory levels across Europe, combined with interruptions to LNG flows from the Gulf, are maintaining a structural risk premium in TTF prices.

Rabobank projects that TTF will average €60/MWh in the fourth quarter of 2026 and maintains a base-case forecast of €42/MWh for 2027. However, under an infrastructure-damage scenario, the bank expects prices to remain in the €50-60/MWh range through much of next year.

The outlook emphasizes that the flow of LNG shipments through the Gulf is highly sensitive to political and security developments in the region.