Turkey Seeks to Revive Ukraine-Russia Grain Deal Amid Blockade

Turkey is working to revive the 'grain deal' that facilitated grain exports from Ukraine and Russia during the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure are maintaining close contact with both Moscow and Kyiv, but the details of a new mechanism for resuming grain shipments remain unclear.

Negotiations are ongoing, with an expected outcome in the coming weeks, according to Ekonomim. However, it is uncertain whether these statements reflect actual progress or just hopes. Turkey aims to play the same mediating role as it did in 2022, when it helped facilitate grain exports despite a blockade of trade routes in the Azov and Black Seas.

The blockage has halted a significant portion of foreign grain shipments from Ukraine and Russia, with an estimated 60 million metric tons of grain accumulated by Russia due to export restrictions, and 30-35 million metric tons of grains and oilseeds awaiting shipment in Ukrainian warehouses and temporary storage facilities. The total volume of produce unable to reach the global market is approaching 100 million metric tons, according to Ukragroconsult.

The blockade has already affected global prices, with grain prices rising by 4-4.5% following the de facto halt in shipments from Ukraine and Russia, according to Kazim Taiji, chairman of the Istanbul Association of Exporters of Grains, Legumes, Oilseeds, and Related Products. He estimates that if the problem is not resolved within two months, price increases could exceed 10%. Turkey is particularly at risk due to its reliance on imported raw materials for its processing industry.