Turkey Sees Record Wheat Harvest as Food Inflation Persists

Turkey's cereal production is estimated to be at an above-average level in 2026, thanks to abundant seasonal rains. According to official estimates, total cereal production reached 41.6 million tonnes, which is about 12 percent higher than the five-year average. Wheat production, in particular, hit a record high of 22.8 million tonnes, with barley production also exceeding expectations at 9 million tonnes.

The favorable conditions for crop development were due to significantly above-average precipitation amounts across major producing regions during the January to May 2026 growing season. To support domestic cereal marketing and farmers' incomes, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) increased procurement prices in June 2026 by about 23 percent and 16 percent for bread and durum wheat and barley, respectively.

Maize production is forecast at 8 million tonnes, close to the five-year average but slightly below last year's output. Cereal import requirements are expected to be at a below-average level in the 2026/27 marketing year, mainly due to high domestic production in 2026. Wheat imports are forecast at 7 million tonnes, about 13 percent below the average.

Food inflation remains high in Turkey, with annual food inflation standing at around 38 percent in July. High production and distribution costs have contributed to this trend, while the ongoing depreciation of the Turkish lira has increased import costs.