U.S. Copper Imports Soar as Tariff Expectations Drive Global Supply Chain Chaos

U.S. copper imports reached their highest level in at least 12 years in July, with more than 200,000 tonnes of refined copper hauled in by importers.

This surge is largely due to expectations of a proposed 15% tariff on refined copper imports starting January 2027 and increasing to 30% in 2028. The U.S. Commerce Department was supposed to deliver its recommendation by June 30, but that deadline passed without a public ruling, leaving traders still positioned for either outcome.

Comex warehouse stocks have been falling for 42 straight sessions, the longest losing streak since 2014, with nearly half of LME-registered stock already marked for withdrawal. The cash copper premium to the three-month contract has widened to $434 a tonne, and buyers are paying record prices near $14,500 a tonne.

Congo's ban on copper concentrate exports is also contributing to global supply chain disruptions, with Chinese smelters cutting production. Storms have knocked out Antofagasta's Los Pelambres mine, Codelco has delayed its Andes Norte project until 2029, and Chile's national output remains stuck at around 5.5 million tonnes.