U.S. Oil Production Forecast Rises Amid Global Price Volatility

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for 2027 U.S. crude oil production to a record 14.3 million barrels per day, up from 13.8 million in 2026.

This increase is due to growth from the Permian and federal Gulf of Mexico regions, with output averaging 6.8 million bpd this year, 3 percent above 2025.

However, despite this boost in U.S. supply, global oil prices remain high, with Brent averaging $91 a barrel in 2026 and $74 in 2027, according to the EIA's own price path.

The EIA also notes that U.S. liquid fuels consumption barely moves, remaining at 20.6 million bpd in 2026 and 20.8 million in 2027, which means extra U.S. barrels will help the global balance but won't instantly cheapen diesel at the rack.

OPEC's demand outlook is also relevant, as they cut 2026 global demand growth to just 380,000 bpd for the fifth straight month and raised growth to 2.36 million bpd in 2027.