UAE Prepares for Major Oil Output Surge After OPEC Exit

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is set to become a major driver of non-OPEC+ supply growth, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The country's oil output could exceed 5 million barrels per day next year as it moves to expand production after its exit from OPEC.

The UAE said its decision to leave OPEC was aimed at prioritizing production capacity expansion and maximizing the value of its resources, freeing output from the constraints of the group's quotas. Its total oil output is forecast to reach 5.2 million bpd in 2027, a year-on-year increase of 730,000 bpd.

ADNOC has committed $55 billion to growth projects, with plans for $150 billion in capital investments between 2026-2030. The UAE's energy minister, Suhail al-Mazrouei, has stated that the country could raise oil capacity to as much as 6 million bpd if market conditions require.