UBS Sees Brent Crude Oil Prices Dropping to $80 by Year-End
UBS India's energy analyst Rwibhu Aon expects Brent crude oil prices to fall to $80 per barrel by year-end, provided the West Asia crisis eases. However, if hostilities persist, prices could remain above $100 for two to three quarters.
Aon attributes this outlook to higher expected production from UAE and Latin American countries, combined with demand moderation in China. If the crisis continues, he expects further inventory drawdowns, which could sustain oil prices above $100 per barrel.
On the impact of rising oil prices on Indian companies, Aon notes that losses already seen in the April-June 2026 quarter cannot continue indefinitely. He expects price hikes or excise duty relaxation from the government in coming quarters if oil prices remain high.
UBS India favors the upstream oil and gas space, which benefits from higher oil and gas realizations during periods of geopolitical stress. Aon also flags gas utilities as a preferred sector, citing diversified sourcing and rising volumes.