UBS Trims Gas Price Forecasts Amid Surplus Supply
UBS has reduced its natural gas price forecasts due to a resilient U.S. supply and weaker exports, keeping the market well supplied despite lower prices.
The bank cut its December 2026, March 2027, and June 2027 forecasts by $0.20 per million British thermal units (mmbtu), citing inventory builds that are running ahead of the seasonal norm.
U.S. natural gas inventories stood at 3.15 trillion cubic feet in August, about 321 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, according to the latest storage report.
This surplus is a result of steady U.S. dry gas production, which has held steady in the 110-111 billion cubic feet per day range since February, as well as softer liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, which hit a record 18.5 billion cubic feet per day in March before falling to 16.6 bcfd in July.