Ukraine Cuts Grain Export Forecast Amid Russian Seaport Attacks

Ukraine has cut its grain export forecast by up to 12% due to Russian attacks on its seaports, particularly in Odesa. The country's agriculture minister, Taras Vysotskyi, announced that exports for the 2026/27 season are now targeted at 38-40 million tons, down from a previous projection of 43 million tons. The ministry had previously forecasted exports of 43 million tons before Russia escalated its attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports in late July.

The Russian strikes have effectively halted shipments from Odesa ports, which are vital to both Ukraine and the global agricultural market. Over 90% of Ukraine's grain exports go through these seaports. The agriculture ministry warned that the disruption could result in a grain storage shortfall of 11 million tons, with estimated losses to the sector reaching $3 billion.

Analyst APK-Inform cut its export forecast by 8.6% to 39.4 million tons due to the disruptions, matching the ministry's revised target. The consultancy also reduced its forecast for wheat, corn, and barley exports, citing a report that included 13.5 million tons of wheat, 24 million tons of corn, and 1.5 million tons of barley.