Ukraine Defies War with Record Wheat Harvest

The USDA has revised its estimate of Ukraine's wheat production for the 2026/27 season, projecting a record yield despite ongoing conflict. The country's wheat harvest closed at 26 million metric tons, up 2% from last month's forecast and 8% above last year's output.

Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture reported that the 2026 wheat harvest was 98% complete by August 31, with a bunker yield of 4.92 tons per hectare - a record high. The USDA applied a net to bunker ratio to calculate a net yield of approximately 4.85 tons per hectare, excluding Crimea.

The increased production is expected to contribute to Ukraine's position as one of the top global wheat exporters. However, the agency notes that the national figures do not represent complete coverage of the country's pre-war agricultural footprint due to limitations in data collection from conflict zones.