Ukraine Grain Export Shortfall Could Reach 24 Million Tons Amid Seaport Blockades

Ukraine's grain export potential for the current season is estimated at around 50 million tons, but disruptions to Black Sea shipments could lead to a shortfall of up to 24 million tons and losses of over $5 billion in potential export revenues. This scenario was estimated by the analytical department of Forbes Ukraine.

According to the estimate, if seaport blockades persist until the end of the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukraine would be unable to fully make up for lost time, even with alternative routes carrying some of the cargo. However, a more favorable scenario assumes the resumption of seaborne exports in October, which could reduce the potential export shortfall from 24 million tons to around 3 million tons.

Problems with maritime logistics have already significantly affected shipment volumes, with Ukraine exporting only 981 thousand tons of grain in August, compared to 2.5 times more than a year earlier. Since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukraine has exported 3.726 million tons of grains and pulses, down 7.2% from the same period last season.