Ukraine-Russia Conflict Threatens Global Food Security with Grain Exports at Risk

Russian grain exports are under threat due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian ports and ships in the Black Sea region. The Union of Russian Grain Exporters and Producers (RUGEP) warned that these actions could lead to a complete blockage of export channels, causing global food security concerns.

The Russian grain union stated that 'the disruption of shipping in the Black Sea due to Ukrainian attacks on dry cargo ships and port infrastructure pose a direct risk to global food safety.' The consequences will affect many countries, even though importers are not currently facing a shortage due to carryover stocks or the ability to temporarily meet demand by using other suppliers.

The RUGEP warned that a shortfall in Russian wheat supply could be as high as 30-35 million tons, accounting for about 15% of global wheat trade. This would trigger a prolonged global crisis and widespread 'food inflation', with FOB prices expected to increase to between US$340-US$370 per ton.