Ukraine Slashes Grain Export Forecast by Up to 12% Amid Port Attacks

Ukraine's grain export forecast for the 2026/27 season has been cut by up to 12% due to Russian attacks on the country's southern Odesa port hub. Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said that Ukraine is now targeting a lower grain export figure of 38-40 million tons, down from an initial projection of 43 million tons.

The ministry's forecast was broadly in line with estimates by APK-Inform analysts, who cut their own export forecast by 8.6% to 39.4 million tons due to the disruption caused by the port blockade. The consultancy estimated that Ukraine would ship 13.5 million tons of wheat, 24 million tons of corn, and 1.5 million tons of barley.

The damage inflicted by Russia's attacks on Ukrainian ports is severe, with agricultural products accounting for over 90% of Ukraine's overall exports. The disruption could result in a grain storage shortfall of 11 million tons, according to the agriculture ministry.