Ukraine's Bid to Disrupt Russia's LNG Trade Faces Hurdles

Ukraine's efforts to disrupt Russia's liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade have been hindered by several factors. One key reason is that many countries, including top importers Japan and South Korea, are unwilling to cut their dependence on Russian LNG. These countries account for a significant portion of Russia's LNG exports, with Japan alone importing 13% of Russia's total LNG in 2026.

In July 2026, the EU extended an exemption to both Seoul and Tokyo for the supply of crude oil from Russia's Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project. This exemption allows them to continue importing Russian LNG without facing sanctions. Ukraine has also shown restraint in targeting LNG shipping, with some arguing that such actions could harm its allies.

However, experts believe that Ukraine's calculus may change once the EU ban on LNG imports takes effect in 2027. With fewer cargoes destined for European buyers, Ukrainian drone strikes may become more likely to target Russian LNG vessels. Another potential strategy for Ukraine is to attack Russian ports, particularly the Yamal facility which handles almost two-thirds of Russia's exports.