Ukraine's Corn Supplies Threatened by Port Blockade

Ukrainian corn producers are expected to enter the new marketing season with their largest available supply in recent years, according to analysts at the PUSK agricultural cooperative. With nearly 5 million tons of carryover corn stocks still on hand as of July and an additional 1 million tons potentially exported before the new season begins, about 4 million tons will remain on the domestic market. The total supply is expected to reach 38-39 million tons, the highest level since Russia's full-scale invasion.

However, global market fundamentals are moving in the opposite direction and could support higher prices for Ukrainian exporters. Corn crop conditions in France have continued to deteriorate, with only 38% of fields now rated good or excellent, while the U.S. corn harvest is expected to decline by nearly 30 million tons.

Despite this, Ukraine's limited export capacity due to the blockade of deep-water ports may prevent producers from benefiting from stronger world prices. Even if the Danube ports were dedicated exclusively to corn exports, it would take about 11 months to ship such volumes, assuming no other crops were exported. If deep-water ports remain closed, calculations indicate that CPT corn prices could fall to $140-150 per ton or even lower under a negative scenario.