Ukraine's Grain Exports at Risk Due to Ongoing Russian Attacks

Russia's attacks on Ukraine's Black Sea ports have severely impacted the country's grain and oilseed exports. According to Ukrainian agriculture minister Taras Vysotskyi, the situation is 'exceptionally complicated' and worse than it was in March-April 2022. The attacks have resulted in a significant decline in prices for oilseeds and grains, with a 30% drop on average.

The country's infrastructure ministry reported that in July, there were 35 attacks on vessels in ports and 22 on those at sea, as well as 67 strikes at port facilities. This compares to only 14 attacks on vessels in all of 2022. As a result, shipowners have suspended calls at the ports around Odesa, and no vessels entered for almost two weeks.

The alternative routes being explored by Ukraine include shipments via the Danube River, rail, and road freight, with rail being the primary option. However, these routes would only be able to handle 50-55% of Black Sea ports' monthly capacity of about 6 million tons, making them a temporary measure rather than a long-term solution.

Vysotskyi warned that without resolving this issue, around half of Ukraine's grain and oilseed exports would not reach international markets. He also stated that the direct losses for Ukraine's agricultural sector could reach between $1.5 billion and $3 billion this year.