Ukraine's Grain Exports Stuck Amid Russian Attacks, EU Embargoes

Ukraine's grain exports are stuck in the country due to Russian attacks on Black Sea ports and drought on the Danube, causing global food prices to rise. Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi warned that if things continue at this pace, there will be another global price increase of at least 25-30%, similar to what was seen in 2022.

The country's main route for exporting grain by sea has been disrupted since Russia's invasion in 2022, pushing global food prices to record levels. Ukraine exported only 463,000 tons of cereals in the first nine days of August, about a third of the usual pace. The minister said that by November, when the new harvest begins, the country risks running out of storage space for cereals it cannot export.

Kiev is seeking alternative routes through EU countries on land, but these are costly and pose challenges. Transporting grain by rail and road costs $50-70 more per ton than maritime exports, making it unprofitable at current prices. The low water level on the Danube limits the amount of goods that can reach the port of Constanța from the Black Sea.

Polish farmers have blocked border crossings with Ukraine in 2023 and 2024, turning agricultural trade into a contentious issue between Kiev and one of its strongest supporters during the war. The Polish government has assured its own farmers that Ukrainian cereals will not remain in Poland but will transit through the country to other destinations.