Ukraine's Grain Harvest to Reach 82-85 MMT in 2026/27 Crop Year

Ukraine's grain harvest is expected to reach around 82-85 million metric tons (MMT) in the 2026/27 crop year, according to ASAP Agri and the USDA. This would be a significant increase from last year's result of 77.9-80.6 MMT.

The main stages of crop formation have already been completed in the south, but late-season crops such as corn, sunflower, and soybeans are still flowering in central and eastern Ukraine, leaving their yield potential highly dependent on August weather.

In regions where the main stages of crop formation have already been completed, temperatures forecast to rise to +35…+37°C in August are unlikely to significantly affect yields. However, the heat may accelerate crop maturation.

Export challenges could intensify if a large crop is realized, as Ukraine's deep-sea ports can handle exports of up to 6 MMT per month. This could lead to an accumulation of domestic stocks, increasing pressure on storage infrastructure and weighing on purchasing prices, according to Inna Stepanenko, Chief Grain Market Analyst at ASAP Agri.