Ukrainian Wheat Exports Plummet as Prices Soar in Europe

The price of wheat in the port of Gdansk has reached a record high of around $11,500 per ton, according to analyst Mateusz Palek from Agri Commodity Experts. This is due to Ukraine's decreased wheat exports, which are expected to drop by over 60% in the upcoming season.

The forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports predicts a decrease from 15.7 million tons in the 2024/25 season to 5-10 million tons in the 2026/27 season. This is lower than the US Department of Agriculture's estimate of 13.5 million tons.

The blockade of Odesa's ports has significantly hindered Ukraine's key export channel, and redirecting volumes to the Danube and overland routes does not compensate for this loss. As a result, Polish wheat is now selling at a price of around $1,000 per ton, which is approximately 2.5 times more than what Ukrainian farmers are receiving.