US-China Copper Tug-of-War Drives Global Supply Shift

The global copper supply is experiencing a significant shift as two of the world's largest economies, the US and China, compete for the metal. Stockpiles on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped by 82% since early May, plummeting to around 69,000 tonnes by late July, the lowest level in about two and a half years.

Meanwhile, COMEX inventories in the US have surged past 650,000 tonnes, a record, rising more than 40% year-to-date. This dynamic has created a tug-of-war between American importers pulling metal westward and Chinese buyers scrambling to secure what's left elsewhere.

The Yangshan import premium hit $103 per tonne by mid-July, the highest it has been since May 2025. The US side of the equation is driven by anticipation of tariffs on refined copper imports, turning COMEX warehouses into strategic reserves with buyers hoarding metal before the cost of importing goes up.

Major production disruptions have hit operations in Chile and Indonesia, two of the world's most important copper-producing nations, further tightening an already constrained picture. The trajectory of US tariff policy will be the single most important variable in determining whether this geographic redistribution becomes permanent or reverses.