US-China Involvement Could Revive Grain Deal Amid Ukraine War
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has proposed a three-way meeting between Russia, Ukraine, and the US before autumn. This meeting could potentially lead to a revival of the grain deal, which would benefit both countries.
The situation is critical: Ukraine's strikes have blocked grain exports through the Sea of Azov ports, while Russian attacks threaten to block Odessa region ports. Global market statistics show that Russia and Ukraine account for 20-22% and 8% of wheat exports, respectively, with combined shares ranging from 40% to 65% in individual commodities.
Grain prices have already increased globally, but decreased within both countries. If exports are not restored, shortages and further price increases may occur.
Washington's interest in restoring Belarusian exports could play a crucial role in reviving the grain deal. The US has an agreement with Belarus on potash, which could lead to railway transit of Ukrainian grain through Belarus or Belarusian fertilizers through Ukraine. This would involve the US referring to UN food security programs for the first time.
China's interests are also present: it accounts for 49% of Ukraine's corn exports and 10% of sunflower oil exports, making it a key player in this situation.