US Copper Inflows Surge to Two-Month High Ahead of Tariff Decision

Copper prices have reached their highest level in two months, reaching around US$14,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME). This surge is largely due to record inflows of copper into the United States ahead of an anticipated decision on refined copper import tariffs. Over 200,000 tonnes of copper arrived at U.S. ports during July, the largest monthly inflow recorded by IHS Markit since it began tracking the data in 2014.

The increased inventories at U.S. warehouses and ports have reduced the volume of metal available to consumers in other regions. Despite uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports, traders continue to redirect material into the U.S. market due to profitable arbitrage opportunities. The sustained premium of U.S. copper prices over LME prices has supported these arbitrage activities.

The concentration of copper inventories in the United States is tightening physical availability elsewhere, reinforcing an already constrained global market. Copper prices remain near historic highs, and demand is supported by electrification, power infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing. Any tariff decision that further alters global trade flows could intensify regional supply imbalances and provide additional upside for international copper prices.