US Copper Stockpiles Fuel Record Prices Despite Surplus Expectations

Copper prices have reached record highs in recent months, approaching $15,000 per ton as of September 10th. This surge comes despite a multi-year high surplus in 2025 and expectations of another broad surplus in 2026.

However, the market is feeling significantly tighter than it actually is due to massive copper flows into the US. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, huge amounts of copper went to the US in 2025, making the market feel 700kt tighter than the actual surplus. This trend is expected to continue in 2026, with a perceived tightness of 880kt lower than the actual surplus.

The stock build-out in the US is not real demand, but rather a flow that can affect the global market. The material moving to the US is no longer available for price formation, and this 'invisible' stock is a significant factor in the copper market's current state.