US Crude Oil Production Sets New Record with 13.8 Million B/d Forecast for 2026
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, forecasting continued growth in US crude oil production through 2026. According to the report, US crude oil production will average a record 13.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, up from the previous record of 13.7 million b/d set in 2025.
The growth is largely attributed to increased output from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico and the Federal Gulf of Mexico. In the Permian basin, crude oil production is forecasted to average 6.8 million b/d in 2026, up 3% from 2025. Higher crude oil prices are supporting production growth in the basin, with West Texas Intermediate averaging $84/bbl through August, compared with $65/bbl in 2025.
Current prices remain above reported Permian breakeven levels, with average breakeven prices of $69/bbl in the Midland basin and $63/bbl in the Delaware basin. The EIA expects full-year 2026 Gulf production will increase 3%, or 0.1 million b/d.
Four major projects that came online during the past year contributed to the Gulf increase, including the Shenandoah floating production unit, which has averaged 70,000 b/d since starting production in July 2025. The EIA expects four additional smaller projects to come online by yearend, providing further support for Gulf production growth.