US Faces Unprecedented Natural Gas Shortage in 2028, Analyst Warns

Energy analyst Matt Smith predicts that the US is heading towards an unprecedented natural gas storage depletion in 2028, which could lead to a significant price spike. According to Smith's modeling, the country will begin to deplete its natural gas reserves in 2028 and exhaust its working storage by 2030. This shortage is driven by two main factors: increasing liquefied natural gas exports and rising demand from data centers.

The US relies heavily on natural gas for electricity generation, with 41% of utility-scale power coming from this source in 2025. Smith argues that when natural gas prices move higher, everything downstream will be affected, including food, fertilizer, plastics, steel, cement, and pharmaceuticals. He warns that the current low gas prices are a false calm and do not reflect the impending crisis.

The Energy Information Administration forecasts an average natural gas price of $3.50/MMBtu in 2026, but Smith believes this does not account for the demand cliff. The analyst predicts that if gas prices tick towards $5 by spring 2028, the Consumer Price Index will flip from cooling to burning, and the White House will own the next inflation cycle.