US Fossil Gas Locks Mexico and Central America into Energy Dependence

The expansion of natural gas in Mexico and Central America has been touted as a 'transition fuel' to help countries reduce their reliance on coal and oil. However, critics argue that this narrative is flawed, and that the increased focus on fossil gas is actually locking these regions into US energy dependence.

As the US becomes the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), its influence over regional energy systems deepens, reshaping national strategies and creating vulnerabilities. Mexico, for example, now imports more than 70% of its gas supply from the US, making it structurally vulnerable to price volatility, foreign political decisions, and criminal influence.

The Mexican state-owned oil company PEMEX plays a significant role in this dynamic, controlling large parts of upstream production, midstream infrastructure, and domestic supply contracts. The company's pipelines, field projects, and fiscal contributions shape national planning, prioritizing an extractivist business model over clean energy transition. Critics argue that this approach delays the adoption of renewable energy and locks Mexico into decades of future consumption.

The situation in Central America is equally concerning, with countries like El Salvador and Nicaragua exploring LNG imports to diversify their energy matrices or reduce diesel use in industry and transportation. However, this risks subordinating their energy security to external suppliers and multinational gas companies.