US Grain Prices Soar Despite Record Harvest Amid War-Driven Speculation

The US soybean and corn crop is experiencing an all-time good harvest. However, gift prices have risen by over 20% in a year. According to Kim Soo-chul, CEO of KVPI, this rise should be attributed within the exchange rather than to the field.

Kim pointed out that energy prices soared due to the Middle East war, causing speculative funds to flock to the grain market and driving up demand for biofuels and rising production costs. As a result, soybean futures prices have risen by 27% and corn by over 20% over the past year.

Despite the good harvest, U.S. soybean inventories fell from 2.1 billion bushels to 1.06 billion bushels and corn inventories fell from 9.02 billion bushels to 5.29 billion bushels in half a year. CEO Kim emphasized that 'a good harvest does not necessarily mean that prices will go down.'

He attributed the price rise to the combination of war, energy prices, speculative funds, and logistics regulations. To respond to this situation, companies should check the CFTC price and position report for each trader. If the net purchase of the fund reached the historical top, it indicates that not only the upside capacity but also the risk of a sharp reversal has increased.