US-Indonesia Wheat Deal Raises Concerns for Aussie Producers

A recent deal between the US and Indonesia has raised concerns for Australian wheat producers. The agreement allows the US to increase its wheat exports to Indonesia, which is a major market for Australian wheat.

According to the USDA, Indonesia imports an average of 10.8 million metric tons (mmt) of wheat annually, with 13.4 mmt imported in 2025/26 and projected to fall back to 12.5 mmt in 2026-27. The US signed a deal to export 0.8 mmt of wheat to Indonesia in 2025, increasing by 1 mmt to close to 2 mmt in 2026.

In 2025, Indonesia took 1.09 mmt of wheat from the US, which is slightly higher than the initial agreement. For the five months from January to May, the US had imported 0.2 mmt of wheat, similar to the amount imported at that point in 2025.

Australia exports a significant portion of its wheat to Indonesia, with the country taking 18% of Australia's exports in 2024-25 and 21% in 2025-26 up to May. However, an increase in US wheat exports to Indonesia could potentially displace Australian wheat and affect prices.

Despite this concern, analysts do not expect a noticeable impact on wheat prices for the coming harvest due to a forecasted smaller crop size and Australia's diverse market for its wheat.