US-Iran Conflict Drives Oil Disruptions Amid Higher Fuel Prices
The ongoing US-Iran conflict is having a significant impact on global oil supply, according to recent estimates from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The agency expects disruptions to reach approximately 600,000 barrels per day by the end of next year. This represents a sharp decline from an average of 21.6 million barrels per day in the last quarter of 2025, before the conflict escalated.
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial waterway for oil shipments, and its restricted access has led to a significant decrease in the volume of oil being transported. The EIA reports that average oil transport through the strait averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, compared to 21.6 million barrels per day in the last quarter of 2025.
The conflict's impact on global energy markets is evident, with consumers facing higher fuel prices and inflation. The EIA has raised its forecasts for gasoline and diesel prices in 2026 by 3.7% and 5.4%, respectively. Additionally, the agency expects retail gasoline prices to increase by 6.5% in 2027.