US-Iran Conflict Enters Seventh Month with No End in Sight
The conflict between the US and Iran has entered its seventh month, with no clear end in sight. The US has managed to weaken Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, allowing non-Iranian oil exports to resume, but at a great cost. According to oil expert Homayoun Falakshahi, Iran's oil exports have fallen from 1.85 million barrels per day last spring to just 255,000 in August.
The US has deployed significant military resources to maintain these flows, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright stating that the country is 'probably two-thirds or more of pre-conflict flows.' Despite this progress, oil prices have continued to rise, reaching above $100 per barrel for Brent crude. The conflict has also led to a record high in diesel prices, raising concerns about inflation.
Mona Yacoubian, a Middle East expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, notes that 'the US is not winning in the war with Iran despite its limited success.' She adds that Iran shows no sign of backing down and may even escalate militarily if it feels cornered. The conflict has already cost US taxpayers over $37.5 billion and claimed 18 American lives.
The Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, have continued to attack ships in the strait, drawing limited US strikes on coastal areas. With the US supply of sophisticated interceptors coming under strain, there is a risk that Iran may intensify its attacks or act through regional proxies.