US-Iran Conflict Keeps Oil Prices Elevated Amid Supply Risks
Oil prices remain elevated, trading near six-week highs, as the ongoing US-Iran conflict continues to keep supply risks high. The WTI crude price is currently at $90.75 per barrel on TradingView, down approximately $0.55 from Thursday's settlement of $91.30.
The Brent crude price is also modestly lower, trading near $95.18 per barrel, after a slight retreat from Thursday's settlement of $95.52. Despite the slight decline, both WTI and Brent are up significantly for the week, with WTI rising approximately 8.8% and Brent increasing around 6.6%, according to Reuters.
The main driver behind the oil price increase is the continued tightness in physical shipping conditions due to the US-Iran conflict. Only four commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, compared to a 10-day average of around 15. This has resulted in a substantial geopolitical premium being embedded in crude prices.
OPEC+ is expected to leave its October production policy unchanged this weekend, partly due to actual Gulf supply remaining constrained despite nominal production quotas. However, there are bearish offsets, including Iraq's increased oil exports and rising crude prices contributing to inflation and economic growth concerns.