US/Iran Tensions Ease Amid European Heatwave and Tightening Gas Markets
US/Iran tensions have eased slightly after President Trump called off planned military strikes and claimed a deal framework with Iran was emerging, although Iran has denied direct negotiations. The temporary reprieve has reduced the risk premium in gas markets.
In Europe, a prolonged heatwave is tightening regional power balances and lifting cooling demand. Storage levels are at 57% capacity, down 12 percentage points from last year's levels. LNG imports fell 29% year-on-year to 6.4 million tonnes in July.
The Netherlands-based Title Transfer Facility's (TTF) September contract closed at $19.4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), a 1.4% week-on-week decline. Unplanned maintenance at Nyhamna, Oseberg Lange and Dvalin has collectively removed around 37.1 million cubic meters per day of Norwegian pipeline gas capacity.
In Asia, the East Asian LNG price for October delivery edged up 0.4% to $20.4 per MMBtu as geopolitical risk and extreme heat continued to support spot demand. Japan and South Korea face a 60-70% probability of above-average temperatures in August, increasing the prospect of faster inventory drawdowns.