US-Iran Tensions Keep Policy Rate Expectations Steady

According to the Blue Chip Financial Forecast survey results from August 2026, panelist expectations for policy rates remain little changed despite recent US-Iran tensions. The only exception is the US, where expectations point to slightly higher policy rates than last month.

The highest expected 12-month ahead policy rates relate to Australia, followed by the US and the UK, while Japan and Switzerland have the lowest expected rates. Central banks are still seen as likely to diverge significantly across regions in response to global oil price volatility.

China's crude oil imports have slumped since the conflict broke out, with part of that slump being involuntary due to reduced supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Russia and Brazil have emerged as key sources for Chinese imports, but it remains unclear whether imports will recover anytime soon.

The Bank of Japan held its policy rate steady at 1%, warning about potential inflation risks above the price stability target of 2%. Real wages in Japan have grown consistently this year, but may be upended if the inflation rate accelerates to outpace wage growth.