US-Iran War Exposes Oil Market's Vulnerability as Reserves Near Critical Threshold

The ongoing US-Iran war is putting immense pressure on the oil market. With disruptions in supply, the question arises, how long can existing reserves cover the shortage of oil on the market? The government reserves of member states of the International Energy Agency (IEA) could cover the current deficit for approximately 180 days.

However, the situation is more complicated when considering only the oil that can actually be taken from reserves and put on the market. Reuters' analysis shows that the US faces an even bigger challenge: part of its strategic reserve cannot be used due to infrastructure problems.

A Saudi Aramco chief estimates that the world has lost 2.6 billion barrels of oil since the beginning of the war, equivalent to approximately 25 days of global consumption based on pre-war demand of 103 million barrels per day. The current deficit is estimated at around 5 million barrels per day.

IEA's analysis suggests that if only government reserves are taken into account, there are about 900 million barrels left, enough for approximately 180 days or six months. However, the IEA is prepared to release additional quantities if the situation worsens.