US Natural Gas Rallies on Tight Overseas Supply, Capped by Large Inventory Surplus

Natural gas futures continue to trade at $2.977 per MMBtu on September 7, 2026, after rising above $2.95 for the first time in nearly two months. The price range has been relatively narrow, between $2.932 and $2.994.

The recent move is being driven by elevated domestic cooling demand and tight overseas supply, particularly in Europe where storage levels are at their lowest point in 15 years. However, a key factor capping the rally is the large inventory surplus in the US, currently sitting at 5.2% above the five-year seasonal average.

The EIA has forecast Henry Hub averaging just under $3.50 per MMBtu in 2026 and rising to just under $4.60 in 2027, driven by feed gas demand from LNG export facilities outrunning supply growth. Despite this, spot prices at $2.977 sit $0.52 below the 2026 forecast with under four months left in the year.