US Naval Blockade Cripples Iran's Oil Exports

The Iranian crude loadings have significantly dropped to about one-seventh of their pre-war level due to the US naval blockade. According to tanker-tracking data, Iran has loaded an average of approximately 287,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude so far this month, compared to roughly 2 million bpd before the Middle East war.

China's receipts of Iranian oil and fuel exports have also decreased sharply. Data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler shows that China has received an average of just 523,000 bpd of Iranian crude so far this month, down from about 800,000 bpd over the previous two months and more than 1.7 million bpd at the beginning of the war.

The US reimposed a maritime blockade against Iran in mid-July, trapping more than 40 million barrels of Iranian oil stored on tankers in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. While Iran has stored 83 million barrels of oil outside the blockade zone, including 43 million barrels in the South China Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea, it could run out of oil available for delivery to China in roughly five months if the current export rate persists.