US Oil Executives Expect Domestic Production to Rise Amid Iran War

A new survey by the Dallas Fed reveals that US oil executives expect domestic production to rise as the ongoing war in Iran disrupts global supplies and pushes crude prices higher.

The survey, conducted from April 15-20 among 120 oil and gas firms, found that 43% of respondents anticipate a rise in US crude output by up to 250,000 barrels per day this year due to the conflict. This diverges from the Energy Information Administration's forecast, which predicts 13.51 million bpd for 2026.

Two-thirds of executives believe that at least 90% of Gulf production shut in will eventually return to market. When asked when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would normalize, 20% said next month, 39% said August, and the remaining respondents estimated November or later.

The survey also revealed that shipping costs from the Gulf are expected to increase after the conflict ends, with over a third of respondents predicting jumps between $2 and $4 per barrel. 'The price of oil will fall back to the $65 a barrel level very quickly once this conflict settles down,' an exploration and production executive commented.