US-Saudi Strikes Expose Iraq's Fragile Balance Between Riyadh and Tehran

Recent joint US-Saudi strikes on Iran-linked militias in Iraq have exposed Baghdad's fragile efforts to balance ties with Riyadh and Washington while containing powerful armed groups aligned with Tehran.

The attacks, which killed at least 20 members of the PMF and four Iranian advisers, were in retaliation for drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities launched from Iraqi territory.

Riyadh described the strikes as an act of 'self-defence', signaling that further attacks would occur if they resumed. The move appears aimed at restoring deterrence against Tehran and its Iraqi allies rather than opening a new front.

Dr Hesham Alghannam, a Carnegie Middle East scholar based in Riyadh, said the strikes were targeted at specific militia sites linked to drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities 'to deter these groups'. However, killing Iranian military advisers alongside militia fighters was not accidental but rather a message to Tehran that Saudi Arabia holds Iran responsible for what its personnel direct from Iraqi soil.

The IRI has given Baghdad until 7 August to respond to the US-Saudi strikes, with some factions calling on the government to sever ties with Saudi Arabia. The deadline and threats of further escalation may also be aimed at influencing the government's domestic policy.