US Threatens to Isolate Iran, Putting Turkey's Energy Supply at Risk

The US has threatened to economically isolate Iran, which could severely impact Turkey's energy supply. According to Bloomberg, Turkey imports around 13% of its natural gas from Iran, equivalent to 7.7 billion cubic meters last year.

This poses a significant challenge for Ankara, particularly with winter approaching. Nihat Ali Ozcan, a strategist at TEPAV, believes Erdogan would not want to upset Trump and jeopardize improving ties with Washington in the run-up to elections in less than two years.

Turkey has been diversifying its energy sources in recent years, including through new pipeline and LNG contracts. However, if it's forced to reduce imports from Iran, it could lead to increased liquefied natural gas imports, potentially from the US.