USDA Corn Crop Estimate Faces Growing Skepticism Amid Low Stocks Reports
The US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) record-breaking corn crop estimate for 2025 is facing growing skepticism from market analysts.
In January, the National Agricultural Statistics Service finalized the 2025 corn crop at 17 billion bushels, exceeding the previous high by 1.7 billion bushels.
The agency calculated this using a record yield of 186.5 bushels per acre across 91.3 million harvested acres.
However, doubts emerged in the spring when quarterly grain stocks reports consistently came in below expectations.
Corn stocks were more than 100 million bushels light on June 30, raising red flags among commodity experts.
Arlan Suderman, commodities economist at StoneX, questioned the accuracy of the USDA's numbers, suggesting they may have overstated the size of last year's crop due to tough weather and pest incursions like southern rust in the corn belt.