USDA Crop Progress Report Reflects Declining Yield Amid Escalating US-Iran Conflict and Changing Ukrainian Ag Landscape

Harvest is underway across the South, but the US Department of Agriculture's crop progress report continues to project a decline in yield. The percentage of corn rated good-to-excellent dropped to 56 percent on September 7, compared to last year's 68 percent and the five-year average of 60 percent.

Allendale released their yield estimates last week, predicting a national yield of 178.7 bushels per acre, down from last year's 186.5 bushels per acre. The total yield is estimated at 15.833 million bushels, compared to 17.021 million bushels last year.

The markets are following crude oil prices, which have surged past $100 a barrel due to the escalating US-Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported massive tit-for-tat maritime strikes, pushing Brent crude oil prices up.

Ukraine's agricultural sector has undergone significant changes since 2019, when a law allowed small landowners to sell their parcels. Today, 110 large vertically integrated companies control most of the production chain in Ukraine, with Kernel being the largest ag holding company and top grain producer.