USDA Cuts Ukraine Wheat Export Forecast Amid Port Disruptions

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has sharply cut its forecast for Ukraine's wheat exports in 2026/27, citing disruptions to seaborne trade caused by Russia's attacks on Ukrainian ports. The forecast now stands at 10.8 million tons, a decline of 25.5% from the previous estimate of 14.5 million tons.

The situation is further complicated by low water levels on the Danube River, limiting alternative export routes for Ukraine. Despite this, futures markets have reacted negatively to the news, with soft wheat futures on Euronext in Paris falling 2.4% and Chicago soft wheat futures remaining unchanged.

Futures prices have now given back almost all of their gains from July, when shipments from Ukrainian ports were halted. Export bid prices for wheat in Ukraine remain virtually unchanged at UAH 8,200-8,900/t or $160-$175/t for milling wheat and UAH 7,900-8,200/t or $155-$160/t for feed wheat.

Traders are awaiting the USDA's updated global wheat balance on August 12, which is expected to include lower export forecasts for Ukraine and higher projections for the EU and US. The futures markets may react more strongly once these estimates are released.