USDA Forecast: Lower Corn Yields Hit Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Colorado

Three US states are facing significant production risks for their corn crops due to lower than expected yields, according to the USDA's August 12 Crop Production forecast. Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Colorado have projected average yields of 95, 100, and 107 bushels per acre respectively, which is a substantial decline from last year.

The national corn yield forecast stands at 180.7 bpa, highlighting the unusually wide gap between these states and the U.S. average. The lowest projected yields are in Oklahoma, with a drop of 27 bushels from 2025, followed by South Carolina with a decrease of 38 bushels.

Crop-condition ratings provide another measure of the pressure facing growers, with Colorado standing out for having 68% of its corn rated as very poor or poor. The state's crop was already 19% harvested by August 23, and more than one-third of the crop had been harvested by that date.

The financial impact of a disappointing crop will depend on final harvested yields, local basis, commodity prices, marketing decisions, and crop insurance coverage. For growers, risk management is increasingly important as harvest data replace projections and farmers evaluate revenue against insurance guarantees and forward-contract obligations.