USDA Raises Australia's Wheat Crop Forecast Amid Weather Concerns

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has increased its forecast for Australia's 2026/27 wheat production to 31 million tons, up from its previous estimate of 29 million tons. This upward revision reflects favorable early-season weather conditions that improved expected yields.

However, the USDA notes that production prospects remain highly dependent on spring rainfall and that a key downside risk is the official declaration of an El Niño event by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. This could bring drier-than-normal conditions to the country's major wheat-growing regions.

Australia's wheat crop would still be about 14% smaller than the 36 million tons harvested in 2025/26, which was the country's second-largest wheat crop on record.