USDA Report Looms as Traders Prepare for Wild Swings

The USDA's August Crop Production Report is set to be released on August 12, and traders are bracing for wild swings in prices. Contributing market analyst Bryce Knorr notes that while the report provides a first look at crop expectations, it's just a starting point, and projections will likely change before final estimates are printed in September 2027.

The report is especially significant this year due to unusual growing conditions caused by droughts, floods, or frost. Historically, government shutdowns, funding lapses, and even technology have impacted data availability. In the past, headline numbers were transmitted over wire service teletype machines, but much of the data was only available via snail mail in printed booklets shipped from Washington.

Despite these limitations, patterns are discernible. For instance, year-to-year shifts tend to average out over time. Between 1973 and 2025, December corn futures added up to an average loss of just under a penny, while November soybeans dropped an average of 2.25 cents.

Knorr advises traders to be prepared for market movement, as the day-after range for corn has swung from a loss of 7% to a gain of 5.5%, and week-after changes have ranged from down 11.5% to up 10%. Soybeans are just as volatile, with day-after changes from down 7% to up 7%, and week-after trade from down 13% to up 8%.