USDA Report Sends Corn Prices Soaring on Increased Exports and Lower Domestic Stocks
The USDA's latest August WASDE report did not significantly alter the world corn balance, but prices in Chicago surged due to an increase in US export forecasts and a decrease in domestic stocks. According to the report, the forecast for the EU corn harvest was lowered again, while production forecasts for Russia and Ukraine were increased.
The updated world corn balance showed that the overall stockpile remained unchanged, but the estimate of ending corn stocks in the US decreased by 1.9 million tons in the 2025/26 MY and 3.48 million tons in the 2026/27 MY. This led to a 4.4% increase in December corn futures prices in Chicago to $189.3/t.
The USDA also increased its forecast for US corn exports by 1.86 million tons to 86.36 million tons in the 2025/26 MY and by 1.9 million tons to 83.19 million tons in the 2026/27 MY. In contrast, the forecast for Ukrainian corn exports decreased by only 1 million tons.
Analysts did not expect a sharp decrease in the US corn yield estimate from 183 bushels per acre in July to 180.7 bushels per acre in August, but the harvest forecast remained unchanged due to an increase in sowing areas.