USDA Report Set to Spark Grain Price Volatility

The USDA's upcoming report on August 12 will provide crucial information for farmers and traders alike. Brett Mapel, an Ag risk management advisor at Advance Trading Inc., suggests that market participants should pay close attention to the report, as it may affect their decisions regarding grain prices.

Mapel points out that in the past, there has been a significant difference between the August USDA forecast and the final estimate. According to data from 1991 to 2025, the final yield was higher than the August forecast 17 times and lower 18 times, with an average increase of 5.3 bushels per acre.

The current corn market is particularly volatile due to weather forecasts indicating a substantial amount of corn pollination by August 1. The harvested acreage for 2026 is currently pegged at 87.4 million acres, which could result in an average increase of 460 million bushels or decrease of 402 mbu from the August USDA forecast.

Similar patterns can be observed in soybean yields, with a history of significant changes between the August report and final estimate. The national average U.S. soybean yield has been higher than the August forecast 18 times and lower 17 times since 1991, with an average increase of 2.1 bpa.