USDA Soybean Sales and Refinery Waivers Spark Grain Gains

Ahead of the open, grains are expected to extend their gains as the market continues to price in lower production figures for corn. The USDA reported daily sales of 330,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026-27 marketing year.

The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.2% month-over-month in July, above market expectations of a 0.1% increase and well above a 0.1% decline in June. Services inflation led the figure higher, rising 0.3%, while core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, held steady at 3.3% year-over-year.

The American Soybean Association expressed concerns over reports that the U.S. government may issue far more small refinery waivers than expected for the 2025 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) year. These exemptions could reportedly cover more than 1.8 billion biofuel credits (RINs), nearly double what the EPA originally planned, which would slash demand for biomass-based diesel and cost farmers approximately $1 billion in lost revenue.

Corn futures continue to rise, with December corn reaching a high of $5.30, while soybean futures also broke to fresh highs, with November soybeans reaching $12.56 1/2. Wheat futures are also up, with December SRW wheat breaking to new highs at $7.28 1/4.